Reading for Insight on the ISIS Threat

Today's headlines are full of ISIS/ISIL barbarism and American-led coalition air strikes in Iraq and Syria. The majority of Americans polled support the current U.S. policy of advise-and-bomb, but the majority also probably have a limited understanding of the region and its players. Unfortunately, I'm not sure policy-makers are much wiser. Indeed it's instructive to read the recently released Before the First Shots Are Fired by retired four-star Marine Corps General Tony Zinni, also honorary chairman of the nonpartisan Middle East Institute. He calls on five decades of military experience and lessons of previous U.S. misadventures to advise on preconditions for successful armed intervention, starting with sound intelligence and analysis. Have we done that? Do we know enough about the enemy and its context for good strategy? To that end, I recommend another recent book by Patrick Cockburn -- The Jihadis Return: ISIS and the New Sunni Uprising. The swift and unexpected rise of ISIS should not lead Western powers to assume that its fall will be as sudden, he warns. ISIS, unlike al-Qaida, is a well-run military organization. And, by the way, it should be noted that some current regional "allies" helped birth ISIS, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey. The ISIS caliphate vision is violently repressive, leading many wishful thinkers to believe local resistance can be mustered if we just guarantee protective air strikes and training. But the opponents of ISIS are weak and crippled by disunity, from Assad's beleaguered regime to Baghdad's corrupt Shi'ite government to separatist Kurds. Plus, there's a method in the brutal ISIS madness. Just consider The Management of Savagery, which is seen by many as an influential guide for ISIS. This aptly titled 2004 handbook for creation of an Islamic caliphate recommends inciting violence between Muslims and also stretching military forces of a target nation by laying claim to vital infrastructure, such as energy sources. The resulting destabilization creates “regions of savagery” where inhabitants willingly submit to a force such as ISIS to end conflict and chaos. The book also advocates use of media and violence as psychological weapons, especially media-broadcast atrocities to instill fear in opponents. The Management of Savagery even anticipates foreign air strikes and urges a response that makes foreigners "pay the price," read journalist beheadings. The goal is to get the enemy to either back off or commit ground troops in an infidel invasion that will bolster the jihadi cause. For more, go to http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/09/10/3565635/the-book-that-really-explains-isis-hint-its-not-the-quran/