Thursday, April 14, 2016

Plotting Murder by the Real Numbers

Murder mysteries are fiction. The reality of murder is both more mundane and more inexplicably tragic. If you want to write a murder tale that accurately reflects crime data, you will describe a handgun homicide involving two male friends engaged in an argument that escalated. It would be more interesting if that argument involved a tabloid-favored motive, but conflicts over romance, money and drug/alcohol-fueled temper rarely lead to deadly consequences as it turns out. Here are the statistics about real homicides: FBI data shows about 69% of 2013 murders involved firearms, mainly handguns. In contrast, knives/cutting instruments accounted for 12%, blunt objects 3.5%, and strangulation less than 1%. As for who is most likely to end up a murder victim, FBI 2013 data shows that 77.7 % of murder victims were male and 51.7% were black (compared to 45.7% white). And when it comes to the killers, where gender was known, 89.3% were male, and where race was known, 53.6% were black and 43.9% white. Although mass killings rose in 2015, one-to-one murder is still the norm, with nearly 47% of homicides single victim/single offender situations. And while people worry about evil serial killers, they should be paying attention to the people at the kitchen table. In incidents of murder for which the relationship of murder victim and offender were known, 55.9 % were killed by someone they knew (acquaintance, neighbor, friend, boyfriend), and 24.9% were slain by family members. For a fiction writer looking for a realistic motive, here's the scoop: Of the murders for which the circumstances of the crimes were known, 24.4 % of murders occurred during the commission of a felony (rape, robbery, burglary, drug deal), and 39.6% involved "arguments." Digging into those personal conflicts, you find the cliché motives of murder fiction are rare: Love triangles accounted for just 1% of homicides, 2.3% involved an argument over money or property, and 2,6% involved a fight fueled by drugs or alcohol. If you want to go deeper into the numbers, see https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2013/crime-in-the-u.s.-2013/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expandhomicidemain_final









2 comments:

  1. Real life murders are mundane only because the really esoteric ones are rarely, if ever noted as crime. The first crime writing in Bengali was Darogar Daftar, translates loosely to Inspector's Case Notes. Excruciatingly dull.

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  2. Fun read, thanks! - numbers are always interesting and like anything - original input, is what tends to drives numbers.
    Random case in point:
    My nephew, who was recently lured to a "meeting" & to pick up his 4 yr old and 2 yr old daughters that was set up and documented, by his wife, at her boyfriends house - a person whom he had met a couple times before... but was not aware his wife was sleeping with him, was shot and killed with a handgun inside the house(2 bullets in the front/shoulder & underarms, 3 in his back)let's just say; "murdered" by the boyfriend.
    Reported in the papers later as a "love triangle".

    Because the initial 911 call was stated a "burglar came in my open door" - 8 months later (Aug 2015) this case is still labeled a "burglary homicide" even though no burglary was ever found to take place. Insurance policy was raised up to $1MM weeks before the killing and boyfriend and wife are now living together off of nephew's estate (a healthy estate sans any future/possible insurance pay out) and while case "could be" strong against wife/boyfriend for several other reasons along with physical evidence of the shooting = The police investigation we are told by the Arizona police themselves, could be well into 2017.

    The labeling of "Burglary Homicide" will remain for years in this example of a murder that took place in 2015.

    So, this homicide case alone could fall under several circumstances, per the percentages provided: "love triangle" & there was much more "money and property" than just the insurance alone....the murderer historically consumes a lot of "alcohol" and more than likely was "high" on pot (admitted daily use)....when the trigger was pulled.

    The part about paying attention to people at the kitchen table, albeit disturbing, most certainly dead on.
    P.W.

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