Peculiar Politics: Liar, Liar and Polls on Fire

In the current presidential race, charges of "liar" are being tossed back and forth by just about everyone. Journalistic fact-checkers don't seem to have much impact, probably because people distrust the media more than the politicians (a recent Pew Research Center survey found 65% of the public hold a negative view of the media). My only consolation is that by watching the endless debates and town halls, I will have a chance to hone my skills at detecting liars from a bevy of sources. I revisited lie-detection research I did back in 2014 and added some new input. My first task was to accept that I am pretty bad at deception detection; most of us have only slightly better than a 50-50 chance of spotting a liar. Second, I had to junk popular "tells" as unreliable; the nervous guy who can't make eye contact isn't necessarily a liar; liars can be glib and engage in more eye contact to sell their stories (watch those politicians ace closeups and sound bites). Researchers suggest some slightly more reliable clues to deceit: a slight shrug, usually of one shoulder, coinciding with a verbal statement of confidence is one example, or a slight head shake "no" when saying "yes." Also, beware the smile that does not include the eyes; if the eyes don't simultaneously narrow and produce crow's feet, that flash of white teeth is not an authentic expression of pleasure or good will. And it's been shown that the nose heats up while lying, so watch for a tell-tale Pinocchio nose rub! If I can detect the biggest political liar, I may even get ahead of the pundits in predicting the winner--because in this peculiar election season, there is an inverse relationship between honesty and success. For example, nonpartisan PolitiFact rated the truthfulness of presidential candidates before the Iowa caucuses, and Donald Trump led the pack in falsehoods (78% mostly false statements all the way to pants-on-fire lies), followed by Ted Cruz (68%) and Marco Rubio in third. On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton were running close, with Bernie at 29% false statements and Hillary at 26% untrue. Now look at the primary results, polls and projections since then. What does it mean? Is there so much anger at the political system that we prefer "authentic" emotions to "establishment" facts? Do we think the world is now a game of liar's poker, and we need to elect the best liar to win? I hope Honest Abe Lincoln and "I cannot tell a lie" George Washington wouldn't run at the bottom of the polls today! For more about political lying: http://whowhatwhy.org/2016/02/01/a-winning-gop-formula-lie-more-do-better/

Need Presidency Bidder Insight? See Their Books

One way to gain insight into the 2016 presidential hopefuls is to read their own words. A surprising number of Democrat and Republican primary candidates are authors, some even with best sellers. Granted there is often an excess of one-sided opinion and manipulated fact, but politicians' books still reveal their core values, goals and leadership style. So let's start with the most prolific writer: Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton. Besides scholarly articles and innumerable columns, she is the author of five books, starting with It Takes a Village in 1996 to Hard Choices in 2014 (although I'd discount political revelations from her book of kids' letters to the First Pets). The recently published Hard Choices is a memoir of her years as Secretary of State, but most reviewers agree that while it is "serious, sober and substantive" (NY Times) on policy issues, the book disappoints by failing to reveal much about Hillary herself. Sales have been disappointing as well. The crowded GOP field has been more successful with publishing. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson scored the New York Times best seller list in 2014 with One Nation: What We Can All Do to Save America's Future, touting individual responsibility and bashing Obamacare. Marco Rubio also had a best seller with his memoir An American Son, but it was followed this year by the low-sales American Dreams: Restoring Economic Opportunity for Everyone. As an example of how presidential ambition impacts an author's tone, consider Rand Paul's 2012 book Government Bullies: How Everyday Americans Are Being Harassed, Abused, and Imprisoned by the Feds versus this year's Taking a Stand: Moving Beyond Partisan Politics to Unite America. In 2015, Texas Tea Party icon Ted Cruz joined the conservative fray with A Time for Truth: Reigniting the Promise of America, expressing views that "have made him a political lightning rod and the most googled man in Washington," per Amazon's blurb. And presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee this year debuted God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy, which posits a struggle between the "Bubbaville" American heartland and the "Bubbleville" coastal big cities, including D.C. Regardless of sales, the anti-Washington stance of Paul, Huckabee and Cruz doesn't mean a party win as Texas Republican Rick Perry can attest; he published Fed Up!: Our Fight to Save America from Washington in 2010 before his unsuccessful try for GOP nomination. What about Jeb Bush? With embarrassingly puny readership, Jeb Bush penned Immigration Wars: Forging an American Solution back in 2013, espousing a demand-driven system. There are more presidential hopefuls (Bernie Sanders, Bobby Jindal, Elizabeth Warren, etc.) who've written books, but I've run out of space! For more GOP authors, see http://www.newsmax.com/TheWire/2016-book-race-gop/2015/01/30/id/621851/